SWODY1
SPC AC 041244
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST TUE NOV 04 2008
VALID 041300Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE...NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH NOW OVER THE FAR WRN U.S WILL
AMPLIFY SE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/CNTRL RCKYS THIS PERIOD AS
STRONG NNWLY JET NOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC CONTINUES SE INTO ORE/CA
AND NV. IN THE EAST...LOOSELY ORGANIZED UPR LOW/TROUGH WILL PERSIST
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS TO S ATLANTIC CST. EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL LOW
LVL CIRCULATION WILL EVOLVE OFF THE SC/NC CST LATER TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO CONTINUED ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LVL BAROCLINITY AND WEAK
DPVA OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE N TO OFF THE
HATTERAS CST BY 12Z WED.
...NRN PLNS...
AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING WRN TROUGH...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE
OVER THE PLNS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED AS A SSWLY LLJ
STRENGTHENS FROM OK/KS INTO THE MID/LWR MO VLY. ERN STATES TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGING FROM THE TN VLY TO THE NRN GULF OF MEX
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT BREADTH OF NWD LOW LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
THROUGH THE PLNS. IN ADDITION...PRESENCE OF A SUBSTANTIAL EML
LIKELY WILL PROHIBIT RELEASE OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE THE EML
/TOTAL PW AOA 1 INCH/...AND STRENGTHENING UVV SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD
ELEVATED TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 06Z IN EXIT REGION OF LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY BE MOST CONCENTRATED FROM ERN NEB NNE INTO SE SD/SW MN...AND
POSSIBLY OVER CNTRL/NRN SD.
ELEVATED CAPE OF 500 TO POSSIBLY 750 J/KG AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL
CLOUD LAYER FLOW /WITH 40-50 KT SSWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR/ SUGGEST
POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL IN SOME CELLS. BUT RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND MODEST UVV SHOULD KEEP OVERALL SVR THREAT LOW.
...NC OUTER BANKS...
STRONG LOW LVL VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL EXIST INVOF
HATTERAS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS SFC LOW EVOLVES
OFFSHORE. WHILE TSTMS WITH LOW LVL ROTATION MAY DEVELOP NEAR LOW
CENTER...EXPECT THAT ANY SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...AND ASSOCIATED
WATERSPOUT/TORNADO THREAT...WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 11/04/2008
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