SWODY1
SPC AC 151618
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2008
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NY AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION......
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CAROLINAS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING RAPIDLY NWD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
ADDITIONALLY CLOUDS HAVE THINNED SUFFICIENTLY AHEAD OF THE STRONG
COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION AS FAR N AS SRN NJ/SERN PA PRIOR TO FROPA.
PROGRESSIVE...INTENSE COLD TROUGH OVER CENTRAL U.S. BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS 500MB 100KT PLUS WIND MAX ROTATES FROM GULF
STATES TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING.
STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AS IT MOVES E OF
APPALACHIANS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A LOW TOPPED SQUALL LINE
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT ENCOUNTERS MLCAPES AOA 500 J/KG.
WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE AND EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WIND MAX...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
COLD FRONT MOVES E/NEWD DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S AS FAR N AS SERN NY BY THIS
AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE AVAILABLE AS
SQUALL LINE TRAVERSES THE AREA FOR NOT ONLY DAMAGING WINDS BUT
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT NWD THRU MUCH OF NJ.
LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS THE FORECASTED
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER WITH
THE HEATING NOW OCCURRING AS THE DRY SLOT OBSERVED ON W/V IMAGERY
ROTATES NEWD ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE INCREASED THE WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL IN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AND SPREAD THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES NWD INTO SERN PA AND NJ.
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTERACT WITH COOL ONSHORE FLOW.
..HALES/HURLBUT.. 11/15/2008
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