SWODY1
SPC AC 051614
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST WED NOV 05 2008
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF SRN KS AND NRN OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO
THE OZARKS AND LWR MO VLY......
...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT...NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL CONTINUE E INTO THE HIGH PLNS THIS EVENING BEFORE
EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SE SD/NE NEB EARLY THURSDAY.
ASSOCIATED 90 KT MID LVL JET STREAK NRN AZ SHOULD REACH
THE TX PANHANDLE BY 21Z...AND REDEVELOP NNE ACROSS ERN KS/WRN
MO TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
AT THE SFC...ELONGATED LOW ATTM EXTENDING FROM NW KS TO THE ERN
DAKOTAS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING...NEARLY STATIONARY
CENTER OVER ERN SD THIS EVE. TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUBSEQUENTLY ACCELERATE E/SEWD...REACHING THE LWR MO VLY...THE
OZARKS...AND THE SRN PLNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 12Z NAM/GFS
SUGGESTS A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION
DEVELOPS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG NRN OK/KS BORDER AND MOVES
NEWD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING VORT MAX NOW VICINITY
4-CORNERS.
..SRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO OZARKS...
A MODIFIED BUT ADEQUATE MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES ACROSS THE PLAINS
IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG TROUGH. ONGOING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY WILL TRANSITION INTO SURFACE
BASED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7C/KM AND SFC TD/S NEAR 60F ALONG WITH PW/S AN INCH PLUS...THE
HEATING COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL COOLING/ASCENT WILL RAISE MLCAPES TO
AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH MINIMAL CINH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SRN KS INTO OK. SHEAR PROFILES OF 60KT ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING IN
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF THE DRY LINE WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS INITIALLY
NEAR DRY LINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL WILL
HAVE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AS THEY TRACK NEWD ACROSS SERN
KS/NERN OK THRU THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED
SUPERCELLS INCLUDING POSSIBLE STRONG TORNADOES AS THEY TRACK THRU
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS THIS EVENING DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE. SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND SWD ALONG DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL OK
BY 00Z.
WHILE SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER N ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...STORMS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION RATHER QUICKLY INTO A LINEAR
MODE BY THIS EVENING WITH PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT AS THEY
MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN NEB/NERN KS INTO SWRN IA/MO.
..NRN PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY...
ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN ZONE OF
SUSTAINED WAA N OF CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW IN ERN SD. THESE STORMS
COULD YIELD A FEW SPOTS OF HAIL FROM NRN SD INTO PARTS OF ND/MN.
SFC-BASED STORMS MAY FORM FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN/EVE CLOSER TO
SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT IN ERN SD/NERN NEB AND NW IA. THESE WILL
MOVE QUICKLY NNEWD. WHILE A LIMITED SVR THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN BY MID
EVE.
..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/05/2008
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