SWODY1
SPC AC 131629
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST THU NOV 13 2008
VALID 131630Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A BROAD NRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH
PLAINS...A SRN STREAM TROUGH OVER NE MEXICO WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE
NW GULF OF MEXICO...AND A WEAKENING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
QUICKLY NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH /STEEP LAPSE
RATES...THOUGH THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREAS WILL CENTERED OVER
ERN NC AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.
...ERN NC TODAY...
A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL LIFT NEWD ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT FROM ERN
NC TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ZONE OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE
WAVE. THE STRONGER INSTABILITY /BASED NEAR THE SURFACE/ HAS
REMAINED OFFSHORE...WHERE RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF
SMALL SUPERCELLS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
THESE ROTATING STORMS WILL PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE PROSPECTS ARE UNCERTAIN FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION FARTHER SW ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM SRN NC INTO SE GA
GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND NO CLEAR FOCUS FOR ASCENT. SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER INLAND FROM E CENTRAL GA INTO SC WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
LOW-LEVEL WAA AND A FEED OF INSTABILITY FROM THE SSW...BASED ON 12Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS.
...DEEP S TX TODAY...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM DEEP S TX/NE MEXICO INTO
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AN INFLUX OF NEAR 70 F BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS FROM THE WRN GULF...AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE LOWER TX COAST...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTENANCE OF THE
CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE EWD MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE HAVE
WEAKENED...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS...PRIOR TO THE REDUCTION IN INSTABILITY THROUGH
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING.
SOME CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD APPROACH THE N
CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE.
..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 11/13/2008
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