SWODY1
SPC AC 131957
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST THU NOV 13 2008
VALID 132000Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ERN NC SWWD INTO SRN GA/NRN FL...
WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ERN NC IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOW THE
MOST INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT /INCLUDING A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS/ SE
OF THE OUTER BANKS AS OF 19Z WHERE NRN EXTENSION OF INSTABILITY AXIS
AND RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE COLOCATED. WHILE THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUST ALONG
THE OUTER BANKS INTO THIS EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE.
ADDITIONAL...DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON SWWD
ALONG OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY TO THE N OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NE
OF CAE TO W OF TLH. AMBIENT WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS QUITE
MOIST...BUT POOR LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING MLCAPE TO GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1000 J/KG. THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ABSENCE OF ANY MORE FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ARE EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
...TX COAST...
TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD OVER
THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IN ADVANCE
OF UPPER LOW. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY AFFECT THE TX COAST WHERE
SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
..MEAD.. 11/13/2008
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