SWODY1
SPC AC 041945
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST TUE NOV 04 2008
VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO SWRN WY. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EVOLVING AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP AND MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR PARCELS TO FREELY
CONVECT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF STRONG JET AXIS. ANOTHER AREA WHERE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...IS ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST. VIS IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS
SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS SPREADING INLAND WITHIN NWLY FLOW
REGIME. A FEW UPDRAFTS WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING.
DOWNSTREAM...WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATER
TONIGHT. AS ASCENT/MOISTENING INCREASE AT MID LEVELS IT APPEARS
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ND. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE ROBUST ENOUGH FOR
HAIL PRODUCTION...THOUGH PRIMARILY SUB-SEVERE IN NATURE.
LIGHTNING WILL BE EXTREMELY SPARSE OVER NC/SERN VA THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER
LAND ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR MEANINGFUL DEEP
CONVECTION...IT APPEARS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY YET ALLOW A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE.
..DARROW.. 11/04/2008
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