Sunday, November 2, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021301
SWODY1
SPC AC 021259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST SUN NOV 02 2008

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE E PACIFIC
AND WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE
SRN/CNTRL PLNS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING MN WILL CONTINUE ESE
INTO MI...WHILE CLOSED SYSTEM NOW CENTERED S OF MOB EDGES E ACROSS
THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO.

...ERN UT/WRN CO AND SW WY...
LEAD UPR IMPULSE THAT CAME ASHORE OVER CA LATE SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE ENE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT.
VORT MAX NOW OVER NRN/CNTRL CA WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM
ERN NV INTO PARTS OF UT/CO/SRN ID AND WRN WY LATER TODAY...
SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...SOME DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX...WHERE DRY
SLOT WILL ALLOW FOR SFC HEATING BENEATH MID LVL THERMAL TROUGH.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIRLY STEEP LOW LVL
LAPSE RATES/INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC SOUNDINGS. STORMS FORMING IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD YIELD ISOLD DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN CNTRL AND ERN UT.

...FL...
NRN GULF UPR LOW WILL APPROACH THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTN...
ENHANCING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN REGION OF RELATIVELY MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS/. NELY LOW LVL
TRAJECTORIES OUT OF WRN ATLANTIC SFC RIDGE SHOULD...HOWEVER...KEEP
LOW LVL LAPSE RATES FAIRLY WEAK...LIMITING OVERALL DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FAVORABLY-
TIMED SFC HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FROM N CNTRL FL S/SW TO NEAR TPA/FMY.
MODERATE DEEP SHEAR MAY YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS ALONG THE FL W
CST...AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF OCCURRENCE OR
TWO OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. OVERALL PATTERN...HOWEVER...DOES NOT
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SVR.

...GRT LKS...
LOW LVL TRAJECTORIES FROM COOL/DRY SFC HIGH MOVING THROUGH SERN
CANADA WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF MN UPR IMPULSE. SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW SPOTS OF ISOLD ELEVATED
CONVECTION/THUNDER.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 11/02/2008

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