SWODY1
SPC AC 291624
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2008
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST AL...AND SOUTHWEST GA...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEAST LA INTO CENTRAL AL/GA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
ONGOING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION
AND PROMOTE DEEP CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER
STRONG THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO SUPERCELLS/BOWS DURING MAX HEATING
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. A FEW STORMS MAY
POSE A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
LATER TONIGHT...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST GA. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER DARK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN RATHER STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OVER PARTS OF
FL/AL/GA OVERNIGHT /EFFECTIVE HELICITY OF 250-400 M2/S2 AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS/. INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING
WILL ALSO PROMOTE MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF...TRACKING ONSHORE ACROSS FL PENINSULA.
INSTABILITY REMAINS A QUESTION...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS
UPPER 60S APPEAR LIKELY WITH MUCAPE OF 300-600 J/KG. SURFACE-BASED
SUPERCELLS APPEAR TO BE AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY AFTER 06Z...WITH
STRONGEST CELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..HART/JEWELL.. 11/29/2008
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