Monday, November 24, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241622
SWODY1
SPC AC 241619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST MON NOV 24 2008

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY
BENEATH STRONG UPPER LOW DIGGING SEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION. WSWLY LLJ OBSERVED FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SEWD
INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE PRIMARY LLJ LIFTING AWAY
FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE
STRONG WITH SFC-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 150 M2/S2 WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AROUND 35 KT. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED CELLS AHEAD OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHERE MODEST HEATING AND LOWER/MID 60F SURFACE
DEW POINTS SUPPORT 250-500 J/KG SBCAPE. ALTHOUGH OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW...MARGINAL WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL WARRANTS
MAINTAINING LOW PROBABILITIES INTO THE AFTERNOON.

..EVANS/SMITH.. 11/24/2008

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