SWODY1
SPC AC 101633
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR
PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...
...CENTRAL TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES IN A ZONE OF WAA
OVER CENTRAL OK/KS AS OF MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM IN THIS ZONE AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF AN MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EJECTING NEWD
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. FARTHER S...A RELATIVELY
WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS SPREADING NWD FROM S INTO CENTRAL
TX...W OF A RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM ROUGHLY CLL TO PSX.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL TEND TO SLOW SURFACE HEATING...THOUGH CLOUD
BREAKS AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID-UPPER
60S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 750-1500 J/KG BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON FROM S INTO CENTRAL TX.
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX...AND CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST AND MOVE
EWD INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A SECOND MID-UPPER SPEED MAX THAT
WILL ROTATE EWD TO CENTRAL TX FROM NRN MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
AND A FEW TORNADOES WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...
A LEE CYCLONE WILL PERSIST INVOF NE NM THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A
DEVELOPING DRYLINE ARCING SEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 48-50 F E OF THE DRYLINE AND WARMING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW-LEVELS WARM AND THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES ENEWD FROM
CENTRAL NM. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 11/10/2008
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