SWODY2
SPC AC 051715
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST WED NOV 05 2008
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
...MS VALLEY...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CENTER
OF CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO BECOME COLOCATED NEAR THE SFC LOW OVER
SRN MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONG 12HR HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 150M...WILL ROTATE NEWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURGING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL ASCENT AND ENCOURAGE LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL
SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO MEAGER TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL
THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY SHALLOW SQUALL LINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FARTHER SOUTH...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO SERN TX AS LARGE SCALE SUPPORT LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE UNSTABLE THAN NRN
PORTIONS...HOWEVER WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MUCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS LA INTO THE UPPER TX
COAST. EVEN SO...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY DEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL ENHANCE ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL AND A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AFTER DARK.
..DARROW.. 11/05/2008
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