SWODY2
SPC AC 281714
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2008
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GULF COAST STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN AS
ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WSWLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED IN
AL AND GA. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A SFC LOW IN THE TN VALLEY
SATURDAY MORNING. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD EXIST EAST OF THE
LOW WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 60S
F AND SOME DESTABILIZATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
DURING THE DAY. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST A LINEAR MCS COULD DEVELOP
AND MOVE SWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND ACROSS SW GA BY EARLY
EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BY 21Z SATURDAY SUGGEST
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE IN PLACE LARGELY DUE TO A 75
TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS COMBINED WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND 30 TO 40 KT OF FLOW AT 850 MB
SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE MORE
PERSISTENT LINE-SEGMENTS. CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND HAVE ACCESS
TO LOCALLY MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY MAY ALSO HAVE A MARGINAL TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY WEAKNESS IN INSTABILITY.
..BROYLES.. 11/28/2008
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