SWODY2
SPC AC 150548
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH FCST TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
DAY-2....ALBEIT WITH TEMPORARY LESSENING OF AMPLITUDE MIDDLE-LATTER
PORTION OF PERIOD AS STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS E COAST. BY
16/12Z...TROUGH NOW ANALYZED FROM UPPER MS VALLEY TO ARKLATEX REGION
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN ONT SWD ACROSS PA...THEN SSWWD OVER
PIEDMONT CORRIDOR TO NERN GULF. THIS PERTURBATION IS FCST TO
DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT QUICKLY OFF ATLANTIC COAST DURING ENSUING 12
HOURS. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM SRN
APPALACHIANS SWWD ACROSS SRN MS AND DEEP S TX -- WILL PRECEDE UPPER
TROUGH IN MOVING SEAWARD FROM ATLANTIC COAST. IN ITS WAKE...STG
CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE WILL RENDER AIR MASS TOO STABLE OVER MOST OF
CONUS TO SUPPORT TSTMS.
...PORTIONS NEW ENGLAND...
HOWEVER...EARLY IN PERIOD AND PRIOR TO FROPA...ISOLATED TSTMS MAY
OCCUR OVER PORTIONS NEW ENGLAND...IN ZONE OF STG LOW LEVEL WAA AND
HIGH LOW LEVEL RH SUPPORTING MUCAPE BELOW 300 J/KG. FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND POSSIBLE STABLE LAYER IN
MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL LIMIT DEPTH OF BUOYANT LAYER...AND THEREFORE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO DEEPEN INTO ICING LAYERS SUITABLE FOR
LTG. STRONG FRONTAL FORCING MAY OVERCOME STABILITY ALOFT ENOUGH TO
YIELD OCCASIONAL/BRIEF THUNDER.
...GREAT LAKES...
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LOCALLY LENGTHY NEAR-SFC TRAJECTORIES
ARE FCST ACROSS GREAT LAKES. WARM LAKE SFC TEMPERATURES AND SHALLOW
FREEZING LEVELS MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEPTH OF LAKE-EFFECT
CONVECTION TO REACH FAVORABLE ICING LEVELS DURING LATTER PART OF
PERIOD -- ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS LM...LH...AND LE. OVERALL TSTM
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED FOR GEN THUNDER OUTLOOK
ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 11/15/2008
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