SWODY2
SPC AC 160532
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2008
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH FCST TO REMAIN OVER ERN CONUS...THOUGH WITH SOMEWHAT
LOWER AMPLITUDE THAN CURRENTLY. STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT
IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM SRN ONT SSWWD ACROSS AL -- WILL
DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE
START OF PERIOD. UPSTREAM...LOWER-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOW
OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND SRN NUNAVUT WILL PIVOT
CYCLONICALLY THROUGH MEAN TROUGH...OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES THEN OH
VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS. AT SFC...COLD FRONT FOLLOWING
INITIAL/STG TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL RENDER AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF
CONUS TOO STABLE/DRY TO SUPPORT TSTMS.
...GREAT LAKES...
COLD/CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM GREAT
LAKES...ESPECIALLY LM/LH/LE...MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST
NEAR-SFC LAYER AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT VERY
BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER. MODIFIED NAM-KF FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MLCAPES UP TO ABOUT 50 J/KG AND MUCAPE 100-200 J/KG POSSIBLE...WITH
DEEPEST CONVECTIVE PLUMES REACHING INTO -20 TO -25 DEG C THERMAL
LAYER ALOFT. THREAT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED FOR GEN TSTM
OUTLOOK ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 11/16/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment