DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 290618
SWODY2
SPC AC 290615

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2008

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...

UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD EAST OF THE ROCKIES
WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED DEEP INTO THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION WILL OCCUR AS MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES IN
EXCESS OF 100KT FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NRN GULF...NEWD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME...VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD STRETCH FROM SWRN GA...SWWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF AT 12Z.
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WILL BE RETARDED EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...BUT WITH TIME FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT TO OVERSPREAD AT LEAST THE SRN PENINSULA
WITH 65-70F DEW POINTS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH A NARROW BAND
OF FORCED ASCENT/MOISTENING ALONG PRIMARY WIND SHIFT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE MINIMALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTNING ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL
WHERE SFC-BASED PARCELS ARE BUOYANT THROUGH ABOUT 500-400MB BEFORE
REACHING THEIR EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS JUST SHY OF MINUS 20C. IT APPEARS
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL BE ABUNDANT ALONG SHARP COLD FRONT EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA
BY MID AFTERNOON BEFORE A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE ZONE ENHANCES THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE
SRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. THIS SRN ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE WITHIN A
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS COOLING
ALOFT OVERSPREADS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. MODELS APPEAR
TO BE CONVERGING TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FL. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SUPERCELLS...AND
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED ACROSS THIS
REGION IF SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON THIS
STRONGLY SHEARED...BUOYANT AIRMASS.

..DARROW.. 11/29/2008

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