SWODY3
SPC AC 120826
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THIS
PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WEST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH
HANDLING THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN GULF. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS NE TOWARD THE NERN GULF
AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGH. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
U.S. IN WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE TO THE
CAROLINAS SWWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...NERN GULF COASTAL AREA THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS...
A SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
PERIOD FROM SERN GA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. MOIST AXIS WITH 60S F
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR
BUT INLAND EXTENT OF THE RICHER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BY A
RESIDUAL WEDGE OF COOLER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. AREAS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST
NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WEAKLY
CAPPED WARM SECTOR DURING THE PERIOD. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MARGINAL OWING TO WEAK LAPSE RATES...CLOUDS AND LIKELIHOOD OF
ONGOING PRECIPITATION...AND THIS MAY SERVE AS THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR. NEVERTHELESS...HODOGRAPHS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AND
STRONG BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES. GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME...BUT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 11/12/2008
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