Friday, November 28, 2008

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 280754
SWODY3
SPC AC 280752

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2008

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHERN GA/NORTHERN FL...

STRONG HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF DEEP UPPER
TROUGH AND EJECT INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ULTIMATELY DRIVE A WELL
PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF GA AND NRN FL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH H5 SPEED MAX WELL IN EXCESS OF 100KT ON COOL SIDE
OF FRONTAL ZONE...VERY STRONG SPEED SHEAR WILL OVERTAKE WARM SECTOR
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY WILL BE THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
RECOVERY PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT APPEARS BUOYANCY WILL BE
VERY LIMITED INLAND ACROSS NRN FL INTO SRN GA...WHERE SFC-BASED CAPE
SHOULD BE AOB 500 J/KG...AS FORECAST LAPSE RATES MAY BE NO MORE THAN
6 C/KM THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE STRONG FRONTAL ZONE...HOWEVER
UPDRAFT INTENSITY MAY PROVE TOO WEAK TO WARRANT MORE THAN A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. FOR THIS
REASON WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF
IT BECOMES APPARENT GREATER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THEN A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE WARRANTED.

..DARROW.. 11/28/2008

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