Tuesday, November 4, 2008

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 040943
SWOD48
SPC AC 040942

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CST TUE NOV 04 2008

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SVR RISK AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE U.S. WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW
REGIME LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THE AMPLIFIED
POLAR TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE EASTERN STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...THERE APPEARS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRE-FRONTAL
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...IN
THE WAKE OF THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERN BRANCH CYCLONE. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INTO TEXAS LATE IN THE COMING WEEKEND...OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BUT...LARGE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODEL DATA
CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE BELT OF WESTERLIES
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL STATES.

..KERR.. 11/04/2008

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