SWOD48
SPC AC 200720
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST 00Z GFS/GEFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A GRADUAL
PATTERN AMPLIFICATION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD GENERALLY BE LOW OWING TO
COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO EVOLVE...TSTMS MAY
INCREASE ALONG A SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT AROUND DAY 4/SUNDAY
AND DAY 5/MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND
ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...THE PREVALENCE OF EARLY PERIOD SOUTHEAST STATES
HIGH PRESSURE AND PROLONGED CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES SHOULD
CONSIDERABLY LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN/SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THUS AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK IS NOT
EXPECTED.
..GUYER.. 11/20/2008
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