SWOD48
SPC AC 260951
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008
VALID 291200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH THE MODELS DIFFER IN HANDLING OF THE SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES MAKING UP THE LONGER-WAVE TROUGH.
IN GENERAL...THE MODELS TAKE A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY SWD
ACROSS THE GULF/FL...WITH PERHAPS A VERY LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE
THREAT SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DAY 4 /SAT. 11-29/ SWD INTO
FL WITH TIME.
MEANWHILE...MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE S CENTRAL CONUS LATE DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 /MON. 12-1 TO
TUE. 12-2/...AHEAD OF WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL
UPPER FEATURE CROSSING NRN MEXICO.
OVERALL HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT WHICH MAY EVOLVE THIS PERIOD
WOULD LIKELY REMAIN VERY LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE DUE TO MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMICS...AND COMBINED WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTIES...THIS
PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF AN OUTLOOK AREA THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 11/26/2008
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