SWOD48
SPC AC 300951
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2008
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
EXPAND/LINGER OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD. AS AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PROGRESSES STEADILY EWD/SWD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE ATLANTIC/GULF OF MEXICO...COOL/STABLE AIR IN ITS WAKE WILL
RESULT IN QUIET CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
DESTABILIZE. GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST DAY 4 /WED.
12-3/...OVER PARTS OF E TX/AR/LA. HERE...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD BENEATH COOLING MID LEVELS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. IF AMPLE MOISTENING/
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...ANTICIPATED SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS -- AND THUS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. ATTM...WILL NOT
HIGHLIGHT A THREAT AREA DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION -- AND THEREFORE THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF ANY
POTENTIAL THREAT.
BEYOND DAY 4...DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
FRONT APPEARS EVEN MORE QUESTIONABLE...AND THUS ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
EVEN MORE LIMITED.
..GOSS.. 11/30/2008
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