SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052055
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-052200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND SERN NEB / SWRN IA / NERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 052055Z - 052200Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER E-CNTRL SD /W
OF HON/ WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD...GENERALLY E OF A
OFK TO OLU TO CNK LINE. 18Z OAX/TOP SOUNDINGS SHOWED A CAP CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB WITH ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DUE TO
RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS
IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DO SHOW INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
COLD FRONT FROM NW OF FET TO E OF CNK. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT
DYNAMIC COOLING WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING HAS SUFFICIENTLY ERODED CAP TO
SUPPORT THIS DEVELOPMENT.
WHILE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE /I.E.
MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J PER KG/ THE INCREASED LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT IN CONCERT WITH THE RATHER STRONG DEEP-LAYER...UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR MAY FOSTER A FEW INTENSE LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
..MEAD.. 11/05/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39239731 40829709 41439688 41599635 41599568 40989531
39669581 38789623 38699697 39239731
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