Monday, November 10, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2360

ACUS11 KWNS 101504
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101503
TXZ000-101600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0903 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101503Z - 101600Z

ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS AND/OR A BRIEF INLAND TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST.

REGIONAL RADARS COMBINED WITH SURFACE/12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES
INDICATED TSTMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE WHICH EXTENDED SSEWD FROM JACKSON/CALHOUN COUNTIES TX AND
INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE IS
ANALYZED AS A WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NEWD. STRONGEST STORMS...AT
MID MORNING...REMAINED OFFSHORE WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ROTATION
ATTENDANT TO THE STORM LOCATED 45 SSE PSX AND IN VICINITY OF THE
WARM FRONT. CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION ALONG AND E/NE OF THIS FRONT
WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. GREATER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR W
OF THE FRONT WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED. SSELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS AT 35-40 KT BENEATH WLY MID LEVEL WINDS AT 40 KT ARE
SUPPORTING A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WHILE LOW
LEVEL CURVED HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WITH A
LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE FOR POTENTIAL INLAND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MAINTAIN A SURFACE BASED
POTENTIAL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT.

..PETERS.. 11/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...

LAT...LON 28039648 28689677 28939649 29219568 28919496 28509500
28079617 28039648

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