Monday, November 10, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2361

ACUS11 KWNS 101733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101733
TXZ000-101830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2361
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101733Z - 101830Z

WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 18-19Z ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX.

LATEST TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED GREATER CLEARING
OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM KINNEY
COUNTY TO SHACKELFORD COUNTY...WHICH ALSO IS THE WRN EXTENT OF
STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. ALTHOUGH CURRENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST AT BEST /6 C/KM/...ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION AS HAS BEEN INDICATED ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF
DISSIPATING CLOUDS /MLCAPE 500-750 J/KG/. REGIONAL RADARS/
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS/CONVECTION WITHIN THIS
SAME ZONE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS LIKELY INDICATING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SRN ROCKIES TROUGH. KINEMATICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ONCE
STORMS DEVELOP...AS 70 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON ATOP SLY LLJ. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT TORNADOES WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT
SUPERCELLS.

..PETERS.. 11/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31049979 32059955 33399922 33479824 33039740 31699733
30589763 29739839 29800020 30270003 31049979

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