SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111621
LAZ000-TXZ000-111715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2370
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST TX INTO WRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111621Z - 111715Z
ISOLATED...MAINLY SUB-SEVERE...WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX
AND WRN LA.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NWRN LA SWWD
THROUGH E TX TO SOUTH CENTRAL TX /VICINITY OF ATT/...WITH THE LINE
MOVING TOWARD THE ESE. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS
REGION...SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS AT
LEAST MAINTAINING WEAK INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOB 750 J/KG/...WITH
STRONGEST INSTABILITY LOCATED ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LINE OF
TSTMS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT IS SUPPORTIVE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...THE OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL. GREATEST THREAT SHOULD OCCUR WITH ANY BOWING
SEGMENTS AIDED BY PERIODIC COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL LOCATED ALONG AND N OF THE ADVANCING LINE OF TSTMS.
..PETERS.. 11/11/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 31519501 31949464 32229424 31879293 30989320 30589388
30289479 29959671 30519721 30979640 31359531 31519501
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