SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111906
LAZ000-TXZ000-112000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2371
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX AND SWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111906Z - 112000Z
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SE TX INTO
SW LA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
EXCEEDING 1 IN/HR.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS/REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED NEW
TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAD INCREASED IN INTENSITY FROM WALLER TO SAN
JACINTO COUNTIES JUST AHEAD OF THE SEWD ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WHICH EXTENDED FROM W CENTRAL LA SWWD TO FAYETTE COUNTY TX.
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR IS SUPPORTING
MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...WITH THIS GREATER INSTABILITY REFLECTED IN
THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS SUGGESTED BY THE RADAR DATA AND COLDER
CLOUD TOPS NNW OF HOU. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 35-40 KT COMBINED WITH
THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE STRONGER CORES MAY PRODUCE
HAIL NEAR OR EXCEEDING SEVERE VALUES.
IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED HAIL THREAT...VWP/S INDICATED GREATER
LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES ACROSS SWRN LA...WITH A CONTINUED WEAKNESS IN
THE 2-3 KM AGL LAYER WITH SWWD EXTENT THROUGH THE HOU AREA TO THE
MIDDLE TX COASTAL AREA. THIS SUGGESTS ANY SUSTAINED STORMS
APPROACHING FAR SE TX/SW LA MAY POSE A GREATER TORNADO THREAT...BUT
INSTABILITY TENDS TO BE WEAKER INTO THIS REGION. THUS...THIS SHOULD
LIMIT THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO SW LA AND MINIMIZE
THE SEVERE THREAT.
..PETERS.. 11/11/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...
LAT...LON 29149681 29859632 30469571 30689484 31029399 30979340
30269319 30059353 29619460 29439530 29289593 29149681
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