SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131157
TXZ000-131330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 AM CST THU NOV 13 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 131157Z - 131330Z
AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTH TX OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT MAY PERSIST AFTER DAYBREAK. WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL EXTENT AND THE
CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.
LATEST 12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NWD
TO AREAS JUST OFF THE LOWER TX COAST. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SBCAPE
VALUES ARE AS HIGH AS 3000 J/KG JUST OFF THE COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DROPS OFF WWD ACROSS FAR SOUTH
TX...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES EVIDENT ON THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D VWP SHOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE INITIATION OF SUPERCELLS WHICH MAY BECOME MORE
LIKELY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO ADVANCES EWD THIS
MORNING.
..BROYLES.. 11/13/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
LAT...LON 27509714 26639712 26119696 25769705 25579754 25789835
26259869 26679868 27059853 27419818 27589773 27509714
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