MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2400

ACUS11 KWNS 291127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291127
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-291300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2400
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS AND SRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291127Z - 291300Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH STRONGER
TSTMS EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

OVERNIGHT MESOANALYSIS HAS SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ENEWD ALONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THIS FEATURE
LOCATED OVER SERN MS /NEAR OR SW OF MEI/ AS OF 11Z. THE BOUNDARY
THEN EXTENDED EWD FROM THIS LOW THROUGH CNTRL AL...GENERALLY ALONG
OR JUST N OF A MGM TO AUO LINE. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS HAS MOISTENED
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS NOW
IN THE LOWER/MID 60S OVER SERN MS INTO SWRN/S-CNTRL AL.

TRENDS IN RADAR...LIGHTNING AND IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO ONGOING TSTMS FROM NEAR MCB ENEWD TO SW OF
SEM. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GLANCING INFLUENCE OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CONFLUENT MIDLEVEL FLOW REGIME OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS INTENSIFICATION.
RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS
INDICATE THAT ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE DUE TO WEAK
LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE AOB 300-500 J/KG. NONETHELESS...EXPECT
ONGOING STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY
LOW-LEVEL...MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS GIVEN 40-50 KT OF
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

..MEAD.. 11/29/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31039019 31518960 31928876 32148734 32258643 32358558
31858529 31218558 31008761 30628931 30579000 31039019

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