Sunday, November 30, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2401

ACUS11 KWNS 300846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300846
GAZ000-FLZ000-301015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2401
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN FL INTO SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 300846Z - 301015Z

THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
12Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

RECENT TRENDS IN LIGHTNING AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT
DEEPER...MORE INTENSE CONVECTION HAS NOW BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
ERN FL PNHDL...ACROSS FRANKLIN...LIBERTY INTO GADSDEN COUNTIES AS OF
0820Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS
COINCIDENT WITH A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW CENTERED BETWEEN PFN AND AAF
WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BEING ENHANCED. 06Z NAM DEVELOPS
THIS LOW NEWD INTO CNTRL GA BY 12Z ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
PRE-FRONTAL...WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONVECTIVE BAND.

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT A WEDGE OF RICHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN FL PNHDL/BIG BEND
REGION INTO SWRN GA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. CONTINUED
MOISTURE FLUX ALONG 40-50 KT LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER MOISTENING
ALONG THIS SAME CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE POOR LAPSE
RATES...RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S ARE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED PARCELS WITH MLCAPE AOB
500 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /I.E. 0-1 KM SHEAR
OF AROUND 40 KT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60-65 KT/...THE POTENTIAL FOR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN/
DESTABILIZE. WHILE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A TORNADO OR TWO DUE TO
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE LOW LCL/LFC ENVIRONMENT.

..MEAD.. 11/30/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29758520 30548465 31128378 31438320 31478263 31198211
30718223 30248251 29798309 29518348 29368460 29758520

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