Monday, December 29, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 290548
SWODY1
SPC AC 290545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2008

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO DE-AMPLIFICATION THROUGH
THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES
CONFINED ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE
FL PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC WHILE ANOTHER MORE INTENSE CYCLONE
DEEPENS WHILE DEVELOPING ESEWD ALONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM
THE NRN ROCKIES INTO MID MS VALLEY.

SOME DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE LIKELY ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
NRN FL TODAY AS BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING ANY POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH ANY CONVECTION FORMING ALONG PACIFIC
COLD FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MINIMAL FOR INCLUSION OF A GENERAL THUNDER
AREA.

..MEAD.. 12/29/2008

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