Tuesday, December 23, 2008

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 230626
SWODY2
SPC AC 230625

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH QUICKLY RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST STATES ON WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS
EVE...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW STEADILY DEEPENING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY. A MODESTLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

...MS/AL/TN...
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED
FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ARKLATEX AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...CONSEQUENTIAL DESTABILIZATION IS
UNLIKELY FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY NORTHWARD. IN THE WAKE OF A WARM
FRONT...SOMEWHAT STRONGER PREFRONTAL HEATING/INSTABILITY MAY
MATERIALIZE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MS/AL WITHIN A RELATIVELY NARROW
WARM SECTOR...ALBEIT PERHAPS ONLY 500-750 J/KG SBCAPE PROVIDED LOWER
60S F DEWPOINTS. IN ADDITION TO LIMITED BUOYANCY...THE EARLY DAY
NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH/CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW
AWAY FROM THE REGION IMPLIES LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE QUICKLY
WANING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS NOT LIKELY. NEVERTHELESS...THE QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT AND AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR OF 55+ KT SUGGESTS A
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
MS INTO WESTERN AL THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
WITH A COLD UPPER TROUGH LIKELY TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
MAY OCCUR OFFSHORE/NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. HOWEVER...10% TSTM PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE WARRANTED.

..GUYER.. 12/23/2008

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