SWODY3
SPC AC 110639
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CST THU DEC 11 2008
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PIVOT AROUND A COLD VORTEX CENTERED NORTH OF
HUDSON BAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN TO ITS SOUTHWEST...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND PACIFIC COAST INTO THE U.S. ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM...AN
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AS ANOTHER TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION APPEARS LIKELY TO NOSE TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THE SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY...BEFORE THE
DOWNSTREAM SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EVEN CLEARS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. BUT... GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT BOUNDARY LAYER
MODIFICATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE WESTERN
GULF COAST...WHERE WARMING MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL SHOULD INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE US...THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
..KERR.. 12/11/2008
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