SWOD48
SPC AC 270919
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN DEPICTING LITTLE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DAY 4 /TUE. 12-30/...AS RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW
PERSISTS ALOFT.
BOTH MODELS SHOW WEAK TROUGHING AT MID-LEVELS MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST DAY 5...WITH A NEW FEATURE MOVING INTO THE NWRN
QUARTER OF THE CONUS. BY THE END OF DAY 5 HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE WITH TIMING OF THIS FEATURE -- AND THUS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE PATTERN.
THE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THIS FEATURE INCREASE DAYS 6-8...AS
THIS FEATURE AMPLIFIES AND TRAVERSES THE CONUS. WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD HINT AT LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE DAY 6 OVER THE SRN
PLAINS...THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT. THE THREAT COULD BEGIN DAY 6 INVOF THE SRN PLAINS...BUT
THEN WOULD INCREASE DAY 7 OVER THE MID AND LOWER MS/TN/OH VALLEY
REGION...AS AN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE CENTRAL U.S. DRIVING
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INVOF THE MID MS VALLEY.
GIVEN THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN DEVIATING AS EARLY AS DAY 5
SUGGESTING LOW PREDICTABILITY WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN...WILL NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY AREAS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 12/27/2008
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