SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230040
NMZ000-COZ000-230445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 PM CST MON DEC 22 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL CO AND NCNTRL NM
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 230040Z - 230445Z
HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES HOURLY RATES OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE IN CO SWD INTO THE NCNTRL NM
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE SAN JUANS AND JEMEZ RANGES. SURROUNDING
LOWER VALLEYS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE MDT TO OCNLY HEAVY SNOWFALL.
RECENT IR SATL IMAGES SHOW A 10-20 NM WIDE BAND OF COOLER CLOUD
TOPS...LIKELY ENHANCING THE ALREADY HEAVY UPSLOPE
SNOWFALL...EXTENDING FROM GUNNISON COUNTY SWWD INTO EXTREME NERN AZ.
THE BANDED NATURE SEEMINGLY IS A FOOTPRINT OF A TIGHTENING
MESOSCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCD WITH SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE PROFILE ATOP
STRENGTHENING MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS. THE SNOWBAND WILL SETTLE SEWD
ACROSS SCNTRL CO AND NCNTRL NM DURING THE EARLY-MID EVENING HOURS.
THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
RATES SPREADING SEWD FROM SCNTRL/SWRN CO INTO NM THROUGH
06Z...THOUGH MODEL TIMING IS ABOUT 3-6 HOURS SLOW.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL...H7 WIND PROGS SUGGEST SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 55 KTS. THIS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW AND NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
..RACY.. 12/23/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...
LAT...LON 35890711 36650741 37610845 38680726 38540617 37650626
36680593 35700636 35640683 35890711
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