SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270305
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0905 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK INTO WRN AR AND SWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 270305Z - 270430Z
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH 06Z. A
WW WILL EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.
LATEST TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE SHORT BANDS OF
DEEPENING CONVECTION FROM N OF MLC NWD TO NE OF TUL AND TO THE S AND
SE OF FSM. BASED ON 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS...THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY OCCURRING BENEATH A CAP LOCATED BETWEEN 700 AND 800 MB.
WHILE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED...MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE W FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...CONTINUED MOISTENING AND WAA ALONG STRENGTHENING 50-60 KT
LLJ ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY OVERCOME CAP WITH CLUSTERS OF TSTMS
DEVELOPING WITHIN OPEN WARM SECTOR.
RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 1000
J/KG DESPITE THE INCREASING MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...THE STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR /BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER/ IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
..MEAD.. 12/27/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 34779570 35899592 36809532 37069462 37009403 36679331
36049297 35269298 34469311 34329349 34159428 34269515
34779570
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