SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270607
OKZ000-270730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2528
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 270607Z - 270730Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WW.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES REMNANT DRYLINE WHICH IS NOW MORE
CHARACTERIZED AS A PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING FROM WOODS COUNTY SWWD
THROUGH ROGER MILLS COUNTY INTO THE SERN TX PNHDL. A MORE INTENSE
COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD THROUGH WRN KS AND THE OK INTO NRN TX PNHDLS
WILL OVERTAKE THE PACIFIC FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR...SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A
STEADY INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT OVER NWRN
OK. PRESUMABLY...THIS IS A RESULT OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD WRN
EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY ELEVATED...BUT WITH TIME SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS LIKELY AS SURFACE FRONT PROGRESSES EWD/SEWD THROUGH
INSTABILITY AXIS.
RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT...BUT THE PRESENCE
OF LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG.
DESPITE THE MODEST INSTABILITY...THE STRONG...AMBIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
..MEAD.. 12/27/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35609886 36459844 36909764 36949666 36369598 35349605
34469655 34039735 34409846 34979891 35609886
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