SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270932
MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-271100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE KS...ERN OK...SRN/CNTRL MO...WRN AR...N
CNTRL/NE TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 955...956...958...
VALID 270932Z - 271100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
955...956...958...CONTINUES.
A SLOW INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE INCREASING MORE RAPIDLY THEREAFTER...ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS. WW 955 WILL LIKELY BE
REPLACED WITH A NEW WW BY 11Z. THIS MAY INCLUDE A CONSOLIDATION OF
WWS 956 AND 958...WITH WATCHES EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN
TEXAS SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NUMBER/INTENSITY OF STORMS IS ONGOING WITHIN
BAND OF STRONG FRONTAL FORCING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS IS ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF FROM NORTHWEST
MISSOURI INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND APPROACHING THE I-35
CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. AS THE
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE KANSAS
CITY METRO AND TULSA...WHILE PERHAPS BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS
OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...BY THE 12-14Z TIME FRAME.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH
AN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW MIGRATING FROM WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE MISSOURI
OZARKS.
DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM BELOW 850 MB WINDS INCREASING IN
EXCESS OF 60 KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY AFTER DAYBREAK. AND...STRONG TO EXTREME
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR TORNADOES WITH
SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS A
BIT UNCLEAR...PARTICULARLY THROUGH DAYBREAK GIVEN THE CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION AND WEAK FORCING. BUT...BY MID
MORNING...HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY
MID/UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH CONTINUED MOISTENING...MAY
SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.
..KERR.. 12/27/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...
TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 38269549 38839478 39429398 39439216 38479096 36949068
33569291 32269452 31809583 32169773 32599829 33319853
34559769 35829714 36769653 38269549
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