SWODY1
SPC AC 090533
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST THU JAN 08 2009
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE RETROGRADING SOMEWHAT...AS
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS NERN PACIFIC OFFSHORE CA...AND SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTRIBUTES TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER MS VALLEY.
STRONGEST OF THOSE SHORTWAVES -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY FROM NRN ROCKIES SSWWD ACROSS GREAT BASIN AND SWWD OVER
N-CENTRAL CA -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD THROUGH PERIOD. BY
10/12Z...TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM IA/WI SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS
TO NM/AZ...SRN PORTION OVER SRN ROCKIES CONTAINING DOMINANT AND
NEARLY ZONALLY ALIGNED VORTICITY LOBE.
SFC CYCLONE...INITIALLY ANALYZED OVER NWRN SD -- SHOULD FOLLOW
CURVED PATH AS IT MOVES/REDEVELOPS SEWD TOWARD ERN MO BY 10/00Z.
THIS LOW THEN WILL MERGE WITH INITIALLY SECONDARY AREA OF PRESSURE
FALLS FARTHER SW ALONG COLD FRONT...LEADING TO STRONGER CYCLONE
INVOF WRN/CENTRAL KY BY 10/12Z. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL PLAINS...OZARKS AND MOST OF TX BY END OF PERIOD...EXTENDING
FROM LOW SWWD ACROSS MID-UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN. FRONT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL AHEAD OF POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ANY
ASSOCIATED DPVA.
...ARKLATEX TO LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...
STG WAA REGIME ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS IS FCST TO
SHIFT/SPREAD EWD THROUGHOUT PERIOD. NARROW/SW-NE ALIGNED PLUME OF
INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES IS FCST FROM NW GULF NEWD
TO LOWER OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH PARCELS BECOMING ISENTROPICALLY
LIFTED TO LFC OVER PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELONGATED PORTION OF GEN
THUNDER OUTLOOK AREA DURING 10/03Z-10/12Z PERIOD. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WARM LAYER BETWEEN 500-700 MB WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
MAGNITUDE AND DEPTH OF BUOYANCY...ESPECIALLY OVER ARKLATEX REGION
AND SWD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL WEAKEN WITH NEWD EXTENT SUCH THAT
ELEVATED MUCAPES 50-200 J/KG SHOULD OCCUR IN MOIST PLUME...WITH SOME
OF THAT BUOYANCY REACHING INTO ICING LAYERS SUITABLE FOR LIGHTNING.
BUOYANT PROFILE SHOULD BE MRGL AND NARROW...WITH INFLOW LAYER
PARCELS ROOTED WELL ABOVE SFC...IN ENVIRONMENT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR GENERALLY AOB 35 KT. THEREFORE...ASSOCIATED HAIL POTENTIAL
APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL AND LOW TO INTRODUCE PROBABILITIES ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 01/09/2009
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