SWODY1
SPC AC 110438
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2009
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY PRONOUNCED
RIDGING OVER NERN PACIFIC NEAR NORTH AMERICA COAST...ANCHORED BY
HIGH OFFSHORE CA...AND MEAN TROUGHING OVER E-CENTRAL CONUS. ON
SHORTWAVE SCALE...VERY ELONGATED AND POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
INITIALLY IS ANALYZED FROM OH VALLEY SWWD ACROSS TX AND NWRN MEX.
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY PLUME IS FCST TO DIVIDE INTO NRN AND SRN
SEGMENTS...NRN SEGMENT RACING EWD OFFSHORE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM UPPER MS VALLEY THEN
EWD ACROSS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...SRN SEGMENT OF LEADING
VORTICITY FIELD WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME QUITE DISTORTED ALONG AXIS
FROM OFFSHORE SRN BAJA TO S TX TO FL PANHANDLE.
SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS AL AND SERN LA -- WILL
PROCEED ACROSS ALL BUT SRN-MOST FL BY END OF PERIOD.
...NRN FL/SRN GA...
WEAK/ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT ACROSS NRN FL INVOF
FRONT...AS DIURNAL/DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS IN MRGLLY MOIST AIR MASS.
SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD INCREASE FROM PRESENT 40S/50S INLAND TO UPPER
50S/MID 60S IN POCKETS...AS VEERING/SWLY SFC FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE
FROM NERN GULF. LIMITING FACTORS WILL INCLUDE WEAK LAPSE RATES
ALOFT THAT WILL LIMIT MLCAPES TO BELOW 500 J/KG...WLY COMPONENT OF
PREFRONTAL WINDS AND RELATED LACK OF MORE ROBUST FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME MIXING AWAY OF SFC MOISTURE INTO
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL...MODIFIED NAM-KF SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A
FEW UPDRAFTS MAY REACH PAST RELATIVELY WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-500 MB
AND INTO OPTIMAL ICING LAYERS FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.
..EDWARDS.. 01/11/2009
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