SWODY1
SPC AC 021243
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CST FRI JAN 02 2009
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...S CENTRAL/SE TX AREA OVERNIGHT...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER WA/ORE THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS ESEWD OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAC NW TROUGH WILL EXTEND FAR ENOUGH
S ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO RESULT IN THE EWD EJECTION OF A SEPARATE SRN
STREAM TROUGH FROM NW MEXICO TO TX BY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN IS ALREADY UNDERWAY FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE TX/LA COASTS...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE LOW-MID 60S. EXPECT LOW-LEVEL SLY/SSWLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND DRAW THIS MOISTURE NWD/NEWD
ACROSS E TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...IN RESPONSE TO LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS REVEAL MOIST LAYER DEPTH FROM THE SURFACE TO
ROUGHLY 800-700 MB ACROSS SRN LA/MS THIS MORNING...WITH MUCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT FROM SRN LA
EWD TO SW AL. FARTHER W...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN TX IS
RELATIVELY SHALLOW BENEATH A PRONOUNCED CAP. PROFILES WILL BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT FROM S CENTRAL
INTO SE TX AS LOW-MID LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE INCREASE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH. THOUGH THE MAGNITUDES OF
INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG TONIGHT IN TX...THE MORE INTENSE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR.
..THOMPSON.. 01/02/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment