SWODY1
SPC AC 181629
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
VALID 181630Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NE GULF COAST TODAY...
A DEEP ERN TROUGH/WRN RIDGE PATTERN IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD
FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY TONIGHT. THIS
MID LEVEL WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK COLD/SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
WILL LIKEWISE PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE SE ATLANTIC STATES AND NE
GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE RETURN IS
OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM THE N CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...AND THIS ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING WILL PERSIST AND SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT. THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR...LOW-LEVEL
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 F ARE SUPPORTING MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY AND CLOUD DEPTH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION. EXPECT THIS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO CONTINUE
INTO MID AFTERNOON IN THE BAND OF ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT
TRAVERSES SE AL/SW GA/FL PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...THE SOMEWHAT GREATER
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE IN PROXIMITY TO THE
MOISTURE SOURCE REGION AND STRONGER INSTABILITY.
..THOMPSON.. 01/18/2009
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