Monday, January 5, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051251
SWODY1
SPC AC 051248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST MON JAN 05 2009

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL STALL TODAY FROM SRN LA NEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SE MS INTO CENTRAL AL AND N GA. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
PERSISTS SE OF THE FRONT /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S/...BUT WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH RIDGING ALOFT HAVE
REDUCED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE PAST 24-48 HOURS.
MEANWHILE...LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM AZ/NW MEXICO TO TX BY
TONIGHT. THE FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME ANAFRONTAL AND THE PRIMARY
BAND OF RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM E TX ACROSS NRN LA/MS/AL
DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE MOIST SECTOR FROM
SE LA INTO EXTREME SW AL.

THE AFOREMENTIONED POOR LAPSE RATES AND CLOUDS IN THE WARM SECTOR
WILL LIMIT MUCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 500 J/KG IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR
CENTERED ON SE LA...AND TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG IN THE WAA REGIME ATOP
THE FRONTAL SURFACE. DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND LIMITED TO ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WITH STORMS ALONG FRONT AND ON THE IMMEDIATE
WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT IN LA.

..THOMPSON.. 01/05/2009

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