SWODY1
SPC AC 241938
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2009
VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...WRN STATES...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME WHILE MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY
CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL TRANSLATE SWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...ON
CYCLONIC SIDE OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DIGGING SWD OVER THE FAR ERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL INTENSIFICATION/AMPLIFICATION
TO WRN U.S. TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUS FAR...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING OVER
THE PACIFIC NW INTO GREAT BASIN WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF STABLE WAVE OR BILLOW CLOUDS. CLOUD
BREAKS COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7
C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT /ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM
CURRENTLY ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST/ WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
AFTER THE PEAK IN THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. THUS...WHILE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ANY MORE ORGANIZED THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
..MEAD.. 01/24/2009
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