SWODY1
SPC AC 061246
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST TUE JAN 06 2009
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM SE LA
NEWD INTO WRN GA...
...N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL OK/TX WILL SHEAR NEWD TODAY AS
THE PRIMARY UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER NM PROGRESSES EWD OVER THE SRN
PLAINS TODAY...AND REACHES THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
ANOTHER NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH THE SRN PLAINS WAVE AND
RESULT IN A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY BY 07/12Z. A
BROAD SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER OH VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE
NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO JUST W OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS
ALONG A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREAT
WILL BE FOCUSED BY THIS SURFACE WAVE AND FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S FROM THE N CENTRAL/NE
GULF COAST NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN AL...WITH LOW 60S INTO GA.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...LIMITING MUCAPE TO 500-1000 J/KG EVEN WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR
DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN CLOUD BREAKS. SOME DISCRETE/SUPERCELL STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY E
OF THE SURFACE FRONT FROM SE LA NEWD INTO CENTRAL AL GIVEN THE WEAK
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ASCENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER FLOW AND BULK SHEAR VECTORS ALIGNED LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT POINT TO STORMS EVOLVING INTO MORE OF
A LINEAR STRUCTURE BY LATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE RATHER
MODEST INSTABILITY INLAND AND PREDOMINATELY LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE
BOTH ARGUE FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...THOUGH THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300
M2/S2/ COULD SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS OR
BOWING SEGMENTS.
..THOMPSON.. 01/06/2009
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