Friday, January 23, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231228
SWODY1
SPC AC 231225

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2009

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL CA...
EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL CA TODAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. A NORTHEAST ADVANCING ZONE OF
ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP UPDRAFTS FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/POTENTIAL LIGHTNING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...ARKLATEX...
A NARROW ZONE OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. FRONTAL
ASCENT/MEAGER BUOYANCY SUGGESTS A FEW TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN LA INTO WESTERN MS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR
TSTMS APPEARS TO BE BELOW 10% THRESHOLD.

..GUYER.. 01/23/2009

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