SWODY2
SPC AC 030633
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CST SAT JAN 03 2009
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY FROM THE CNTRL CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ELSEWHERE...A LOW LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO W OF BAJA
WILL TRANSLATE SEWD WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION SWWD INTO THE GULF OF CA AND BAJA BY MONDAY MORNING.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE N-CNTRL CONUS
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM NEAR THE IL/IND BORDER NNEWD INTO ONTARIO
BEFORE OCCLUDING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE SWRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH MORE SEWD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE
NWRN/N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO.
...CAROLINAS SWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD FROM
THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS TO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. STRONGEST AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS
OF MS...AL AND GA WHERE DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WEAKENING LLJ
AXIS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO SRN APPALACHIANS. ERN EXTENSION
OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE E. FARTHER
W...DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR COUPLED WITH ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT
SHOULD FOSTER MORE VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST. WHILE
A FEW LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS...WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC VERTICAL SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED...DIURNAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WRN END
OF COLD FRONT ALONG THE TX COAST AS WELL AS INVOF MIDLEVEL COLD POOL
OVER CNTRL/SRN AZ. EXPECTED TSTM AREAL COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LIMITED
TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF ADDITIONAL GENERAL THUNDER AREAS.
..MEAD.. 01/03/2009
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