SWODY2
SPC AC 050622
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CST MON JAN 05 2009
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY EWD INTO PARTS OF GA AND THE FL PNHDL...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD. AS THIS
OCCURS...100+ KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE TROUGH BASE WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A MORE PRONOUNCED
SURFACE LOW FROM LA NEWD THROUGH NRN AL/MIDDLE TN AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL
PRECEDE THIS LOW NWD INTO ERN PARTS OF TN WITH THIS BOUNDARY
RETREATING MORE SLOWLY NWD E OF THE APPALACHIANS OVER THE CAROLINAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD FROM THE LOW...PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...CNTRL GULF STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE SERN STATES...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT A RATHER
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN SYSTEM WARM
SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.
HOWEVER...INTERVENING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT LAPSE
RATES TO NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC WITH MLCAPE REMAINING LESS THAN 500
J/KG THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE MAJORITY OF TSTM
ACTIVITY TO IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE MESOSCALE ASCENT
WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER
TROUGH. AS A RESULT...THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM
DURING THE MORNING OVER PARTS OF MS AND ERN LA BEFORE
MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH AL INTO PARTS OF GA AND THE FL PNHDL
TUESDAY NIGHT.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG /BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER/ OWING TO THE COLLOCATION OF 45-60 KT LLJ AND
80-100+ KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK. THUS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...A FEW TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG NEAR GROUND SHEAR AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS.
..MEAD.. 01/05/2009
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