SWODY2
SPC AC 060610
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CST TUE JAN 06 2009
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH /ANCHORED BY VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE ERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO NNEWD
PROPAGATION OF 100-130 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD. AS THIS
OCCURS...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD FROM THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AND ERN GULF STATES TO OFF THE MIDDLE AND SERN ATLANTIC
COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
...ERN CAROLINAS SWD INTO THE FL PENINSULA...
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OFF THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WRN ATLANTIC
WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE
POOR /I.E. 5.5 - 6.0 C PER KM/ OWING TO POSITION OF WARM SECTOR ON
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF INTENSE JET STREAK. AS A RESULT...
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED WITH MUCAPE OF ONLY
A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG EXPECTED. IN FACT...MUCH OF THE MOIST
CONVECTION MAY EVEN REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING GENERATION.
WHILE CONVERGENCE WILL TEND TO DIMINISH ALONG SURFACE FRONT DURING
THE DAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SEGMENTED BANDS OF
MOIST CONVECTION /SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING/. AMBIENT
WIND FIELDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND ANY MORE ORGANIZED/STRONGER
STORM-SCALE DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
ANY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END OVER THE CAROLINAS BY EVENING
AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. FARTHER S...STORMS SHOULD ALSO
TEND TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN PENINSULA FL
AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY STABILIZES.
..MEAD.. 01/06/2009
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