SWODY2
SPC AC 110526
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2009
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING NWD ALONG THE COAST OF WRN NORTH AMERICA...AND A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH REMAINING EAST OF THE ROCKIES ANCHORED TO A VORTEX
OVER HUDSON BAY/NRN QUEBEC. THE ERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
AMPLIFICATION ON DAY 2 AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ONE OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN AND THE SECOND OF ARCTIC ORIGIN...PHASE FROM ONTARIO
THROUGH THE MS VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY.
...CENTRAL/S FL...
A FRONT MOVING INTO FL DURING DAY 1 WILL PROCEED SWD ACROSS SRN FL
ON MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...GIVEN DIABATIC
HEATING WITHIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SHALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION
IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT N OF THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL
FL...GIVEN DEVELOPING WAA AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE
AMPLIFYING ERN U.S. TROUGH. HOWEVER...A WARM LAYER AT MID LEVELS/
WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE BOTH SURFACE BASED AND
ELEVATED UPDRAFTS FROM BECOMING DEEP ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/
LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.
..PETERS.. 01/11/2009
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