Monday, January 26, 2009

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 261734
SWODY2
SPC AC 261732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CST MON JAN 26 2009

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER NERN PACIFIC ANCHORS REX PATTERN...WITH
SUBTROPICAL LOW BETWEEN HAWAII-BAJA. THIS BLOCKING FEATURE WILL
MAINTAIN MEAN TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM WITH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
MUCH OF CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN UPPER AIR
ANALYSES AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM SRN CA NEWD ACROSS MT/WY
-- IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN POSITIVE TILT BUT DEAMPLIFY THROUGH
DAY-2. TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE FROM A NRN PLAINS - NRN BAJA POSITION
AT 27/12Z TO LINE FROM LOWER MI TO SW TX.

SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- NOW ANALYZED AS QUASISTATIONARY FROM SRN FL
ACROSS N-CENTRAL GULF TO DEEP S TX -- IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
SWD/SEWD AS COLD FRONT WITH APCH OF SWRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY ALONG FRONT AROUND 27/18Z OVER NRN LA OR SRN
AR...WITH RESULTANT LOW EJECTING NEWD TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY END
OF PERIOD. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TX COAST...LOWER MS
VALLEY...AND MOST OF TN VALLEY BY 28/12Z.

...LA...MS DELTA REGION...
ON BOTH SIDES OF COLD FRONT...INCREASINGLY MOIST/LOW-LEVEL WAA
REGIME WILL RESULT IN SOME PARCELS BEING LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY TO
LFC WITH SHALLOW/WEAK BUOYANCY IN MIDLEVELS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ELEVATED MUCAPE 100-200 J/KG POSSIBLE DURING 28/15-29/00Z TIME FRAME
ACROSS PARTS OF LA AND SRN/WRN MS. WHILE VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...GEN TSTM OUTLOOK FOR AOA 10-PERCENT
COVERAGE IS PRECLUDED ATTM BY WEAKNESS OF BUOYANCY ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERTICAL CONFINEMENT OF FCST CAPE BELOW IDEAL THERMAL/ICING
LAYER FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.

..EDWARDS.. 01/26/2009

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